Global growth is slowing, but not stopping—yet

Since 1900 the global economy has fallen into recession, as defined by a year-on-year decline in gdp per person, about once a decade on average. In 2020 the world experienced the deepest downturn since the end of the second world war. Just two years on, is another recession on the way?

Worries are certainly mounting. The war in Ukraine has triggered higher food and energy prices, which have hammered households’ disposable incomes. Lockdowns in China are disrupting supply chains. And central banks are rapidly raising interest rates to tame inflation.