Morning Consult

Out the gate this morning with my colleague Eli Yokley 's post-trial research on how voters feel about various aspects of the Trump conviction, using data from a representative survey of registered U.S. voters we fielded on Friday.

Over half of voters approve of the New York jury’s decision to convict former President Donald Trump on 34 felonies. A similar share believes Trump committed a crime.

Memorial Day weekend is just a few days away, the official kick off of the summer travel season. Just in time, Lindsey Roeschke has a fantastic new Morning Consult Pro report the looks at vacation and travel preferences by generation, with some crucial insights on what sets each generation apart. Link in the comments.

The May 2024 edition of our global leader approval ratings is now available. For anyone keeping an eye on India's elections, Modi remains our most highly rated incumbent chief executive (by total approval share) among those we currently track. Data is current as of 5/7/24. Top 5 Here: 1. Modi 2. Milei 3. AMLO 4. Amherd 5. Albanese Our full set out global ratings, along with companion data and research, can be found here: https://lnkd.in/e57VqDb9

Chinese President Xi Jinping is unlikely to succeed in driving a wedge between Europe and America during his upcoming visit to the former, but we've taken the opportunity to highlight longer-term risks to American soft power in Europe in our data-forward biweekly Counter/Consensus briefing (free to subscribe!). In particular, many have noted that America would be on the outs in Western European capitals — and presumably among their constituents — if a second Trump presidency materializes for 2025. Our data suggests it’s a valid inference. As seen in the leftmost portion of the charts below, Europeans’ goodwill toward America increased markedly following President Biden’s inauguration in January 2021; by contrast, in the twilight of the Trump presidency, Europeans’ goodwill was substantially lower, and their views of America and China were much more similar. Trump’s promises of 10% tariffs on U.S. allies and familiar comments threatening to withdraw from NATO make it likely a second term would take relations back to similarly fraught territory. Xi’s visit should be viewed against this backdrop. While Beijing’s near-term charm offensive is unlikely to dramatically shift the needle when it comes to Europeans’ views of China, it doesn’t necessarily have to. Simply holding European sentiment toward China steady could be sufficient to degrade American soft power in the region and give Beijing a leg up if former President Trump returns to office. If you'd like to subscribe to future briefings (they're pithy, punchy, data-heavy, and forecast-focused), you can do so here (email registration required, but otherwise free to access): https://lnkd.in/ebuXsjGm #tariffs #NATO #softpower #geopoliticalrisk #politicalrisk

Brands are trying to navigate the global culture wars Erstwhile U.S. senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan famously said that the central conservative truth is that culture, not politics, determines the success of a society, but that the central liberal truth is that politics can change culture. Building on the data exposed in the revamped Global Corporate Purpose Tracker, my analysis out today looks at how global consumers' political leanings interact with their desire for corporate action on hot button social issues like LGBTQ rights, corporate unionization, gay marriage, and abortion access. The analysis from today: https://lnkd.in/e948dqPG The tracker, with available chart pack and data downloads for subscribers: https://lnkd.in/ewuDkgUr

In a world where trust in institutions has been on the retreat and corporate activism on the rise, many consumers look to companies to take leadership on hot button issues like climate change, LGBTQ rights, abortion access, unionization, and more. But which consumers are demanding that companies take a stance, and on what issues? To help leaders chart a path forward, I've revamped Morning Consult’s Global Corporate Purpose Tracker, which follows consumers’ expectations surrounding corporate activism and gauges global trust in business, while diving deeper into the expectations of global consumers around corporate action on key social issues. I'm particularly excited that we now offer the underlying data for Political+ subscribers, which includes demographic breakouts based on age, gender, political ideology, employment status, education, and more. Check out the new and improved tracker: https://lnkd.in/ewuDkgUr

Join us at 12 PM ET this Wednesday for a discussion between U.S. political analysts Cameron Easley and Eli Yokley on the latest polling in the 2024 elections, including what’s happening in swing states, the issues voters care about and how media coverage of those issues and the election’s major figures are reaching voters. Jason I. McMann, PhD moderates. Register today: https://lnkd.in/gUkwNuim

The April 2024 edition of our monthly U.S. Election Watch Report -- which will guide our upcoming free-to-attend webinar on 4/24 -- is now available for Morning Consult Pro clients. Take a look ahead of the webinar next week, and join us on 4/24 for a lively moderated discussion covering our latest survey research on the state of the race with Cameron Easley and Eli Yokley. Register for the webinar here: https://lnkd.in/eaPCtgHh Download the report here: https://lnkd.in/eMvTgSyG

Morning Consult Counter/Consensus is a biweekly briefing that leverages our global analysis and Political Intelligence data to spotlight counter-consensus takes on major (geo)political developments, and affirm consensus views on issues for which data has been scarce in public discourse or otherwise adds value. Read the latest edition here and subscribe for future updates.