Why Bush's struggle for reelection could rival Bowman's

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With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team

PROGRAMMING NOTE: We’ll be off Thursday, July 4, and Friday, July 5, for the Fourth of July holiday but back in your inboxes on Monday, July 8.

BIDEN DEBATE FALLOUT: Here’s the latest from POLITICO:

THE SPIRIT IN ST. LOUIS 

Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) wants to avoid the same fate Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) met in her reelection bid. But the progressive “Squad” member might find herself in a similar spot as her ally when St. Louis voters go to the polls in a little more than a month.

Bowman’s Hill colleagues stressed his loss was largely due to the millions spent by AIPAC and other outside groups, along with his own personal problems, rather than his progressive policy positions. The limited polling in the race shows Bush in potentially better shape than Bowman, who’d been badly lagging in polls leading up to the primary.

But her brutal primary fight is just the latest entry in the ongoing Democratic rift over Israel and Gaza and the latest proxy battle between wings of the Democratic Party. If Bush loses her bid for renomination, the entire “Squad” class of 2020 (who both came to office by primarying longtime incumbents) will have been wiped out. And it will deprive the “Squad” of two rising stars in the party as Democrats angle to flip the House this fall.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Democratic leaders endorsed Bush, POLITICO reported first on Tuesday, handing her a boost before next month’s primary.

Here’s what we’re watching:

A progressive challenger: Depending on who you ask, the race is either a progressive-on-progressive matchup or a progressive vs. a Democrat in name only. Bush is facing a strong primary challenge from St. Louis Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell, who was elected in 2018 as a reform-minded prosecutor in the wake of the Black Lives Matter movement.

On domestic policy, there’s not much daylight between the candidates. But the two significantly diverge on Israel. While Bush has been outspoken against Israel, Bell has reiterated time and time again that he backs the U.S. providing support for the country after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack.

Bush and her allies strenuously deny Bell’s characterization as a progressive, pointing to some of his past political work managing a Republican friend’s congressional campaign and donor overlap with the GOP.

For Bush and her progressive allies, the contest has great meaning.

“For us it is very personal because we're here trying to give voice to people who have been left out of the democratic processes,” said Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.).

“I don't worry, I work. And I'll be working hard to make sure Cori Bush can return here so that we can continue to do this work,” said Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.).

Personal issues and problems at home: Bush’s struggles at home left her vulnerable to a primary challenge. Like Bowman, she’s been an outspoken advocate for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war, and has advocated for Palestinians in ways that have sometimes rubbed Jewish constituents the wrong way. Although her district has a smaller Jewish population than Bowman’s district in the New York City suburbs, it could still make the difference in a low-turnout primary.

“I know that a number of her supporters from the Jewish community are angry with her but I don’t know what that has translated into in terms of the election,” said Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.), who’s staying neutral in the primary. (He’d been close to then-Rep. Lacy Clay, whom Bush had defeated in the 2020 primary.)

Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), a co-chair of the Progressive Caucus’ political arm, encouraged Bush to shore up her alliances back home.

“Incumbents who have to spend time actually working in Washington and doing their jobs need to get back into their district and go and see everybody and talk to everybody and answer any questions anybody's got,” he said.

Also looming over the race: The federal investigation into Bush’s campaign spending on security services. Bush’s now-husband had worked security for her and been paid by her campaign, and her other security contractors have drawn further scrutiny for their controversial backgrounds. She’s denied any wrongdoing and said she would cooperate with the investigation. But like Bowman’s fire alarm incident last year, the investigation into Bush has provided ample fodder for her critics.

Equal AIPAC problems: Looming over the race is AIPAC, which has pledged to take out incumbents who it views as anti-Israel. The nearly $15 million the group’s affiliated super PAC, the United Democracy Project, spent in Bowman’s race helped make it the most expensive House primary in history.

Progressive Caucus leaders had asked Democratic leadership to urge AIPAC to back off from their primaries, but it appears their appeals were unsuccessful.

“AIPAC to my mind, is a MAGA Republican entity and so the Democratic leadership will have very limited maneuverability to ask them to do anything,” Raskin said.

The well-resourced group has already endorsed Bell and has started spending in his race, drawing condemnation from progressive groups. But the flood of money is likely to swamp spending by Bush and her liberal allies.

Progressive leaders projected confidence and said they’d put more resources into Bush’s race.

“We’re going to try to put a little more in,” said Progressive Caucus Chair Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), who said her leadership PAC (Medicare for All PAC) would also spend for Bush.

She hinted that part of the support liberals would lend Bush would come more on the organizational side of the race: “I think it has more to do with making sure we’re shoring up certain parts of her coalition in the district.”

But Jayapal acknowledged: “What do you do when $20 million comes into a race?”

— Nicholas Wu, with an assist from Daniella Diaz

GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Wednesday, July 3, where we are very excited for the July Fourth holiday!

GOP’S JUSTICE FIGHT

Republicans are preparing for a messy fight over the Justice Department funding bill — including the possibility it unravels altogether amid GOP infighting later this month.

Asked about the remaining eight funding bills coming down the pike, Republicans pointed to the Commerce, Justice & Science bill as one of biggest, if not the biggest, problem child awaiting the House GOP in the final sprint to August recess.

Republicans didn’t use the first cut of the bill, unveiled last month, to go after the funding for special counsel Jack Smith or state-level prosecutors in New York and Georgia leading cases against former President Donald Trump. (This occurred despite Speaker Mike Johnson pointing to the appropriations process as one of the three ways the thin GOP House majority would target the Trump investigators.)

“The one that could be troublesome is CJS,” Rep. David Joyce (R-Ohio) said about the remaining appropriations bills, pointing to the defunding push.

Republican Study Committee Chair Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) added that “obviously CJS is going to be a problem. So we’ll see where that goes.”

Members of the right flank still want language going after Trump’s prosecutors into the bill, though some are acknowledging the reality it might not happen, given the near unanimity it would take to do that with Democratic opposition.

“I would hope so, but whether it does or not I don’t know,” Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) told us.

Some of the math problems: The bill will get voted on before the full Appropriations Committee next week. There’s skepticism among some Republicans on the panel about defunding Trump’s prosecutors, so the right flank is likely to face hurdles to getting it added into the bill there.

And while it’s safe to assume it will be offered as a potential amendment for the floor debate — scheduled to place the week of July 22 — they face an even larger bank of skeptical GOP lawmakers there. As a reminder: The CJS bill didn’t even make it to the floor last year after both sides of the conference voted against even starting debate, though for opposing reasons.

And the current standoff raises questions over whether some of the hard-right Republicans pushing the hardest to target funding for Trump’s prosecutors would ultimately vote for a bill that doesn’t do that. In a single-digit margin environment, with Democrats likely to oppose the bill in bulk because of larger cuts to the DOJ, any no votes will matter.

— Jordain Carney

APPLIANCE (MINI)WEEK RETURNS! 

Several months after sidelining the push, House Republicans are again taking aim at the Biden administration’s tightened energy efficiency standards for refrigerators and dishwashers.

Those measures are among around half a dozen slated for consideration by the House Rules Committee on July 8, the final stop before floor action.

They won't be alone.

Republicans also intend to consider a bill requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote. (Non-citizens are already barred from voting in federal elections.) They will also attempt to nullify a Biden Education Department Title IX regulation that expanded protections for LGBTQ+ and pregnant students in institutions receiving federal funding.

— Anthony Adragna

HUDDLE HOTDISH

David Kustoff delivered remarks to Israel’s Knesset. Josh Gottheimer met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

On Tuesday, July 9, join POLITICO and WELT for a roundtable discussion with the top defense officials in NATO countries that share a border with Russia, including Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. These are the crucial officials tasked with armoring these front-line states against Vladimir Putin’s aggressive expansionism. We will discuss how they are adapting to this new period of danger and explore the future of the NATO alliance and their relationship with the United States. Register here.

QUICK LINKS 

Senate to kick off fiscal 2025 markups next week, from Caitlin Emma

Arizona border mayor who campaigned with Lake endorses Gallego for Senate, from Samantha-Jo Roth in Washington Examiner

TRANSITIONS 

Annie Wolf is leaving the Hill after more than a decade and a half, having worked for multiple members of House GOP leadership, to join Mehlman Consulting as a principal.

TOMORROW IN CONGRESS

The House and Senate are out.

THURSDAY AROUND THE HILL

Fireworks.

TRIVIA

TUESDAY’S ANSWER: Andrew Ryan was the first to correctly guess that the select committees on the Climate Crisis, Economic Disparity and Fairness in Growth, Modernization of Congress and Jan. 6 attack are the four select House committees from the 117th Congress that are no longer standing.

TODAY’S QUESTION, from Andrew: Two senators representing the same state were both born in the same state, but that state is not the one they represent. Name their state of birth and current state in the Senate.

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to [email protected].

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