Enverus Intelligence® Research

The Inflation Reduction Act spurred a surge of project announcements and developments on the molecules side of the energy transition, creating numerous opportunities for capital deployment. Texas’ dominance in this nascent landscape is evident, and Enverus Foundations™ – Carbon Innovation quantifies this by providing centralized access and daily updates to more than 3,000 global energy transition projects. • Some 85% of CCUS projects are still pre-operational, but a massive wave of development is on the horizon. • By 2030, Enverus Intelligence Research expects 700 projects to launch, adding 1.2 gtpa of capacity and opening doors for new collaborations. • Texas alone holds a staggering 494 mtpa capacity, accounting for 46% of the nation’s storage and 45% of its capture capability. • Texas further capitalizes on CCUS infrastructure by planning to produce 4.2 mtpa of blue hydrogen, representing 58% of U.S. planned blue hydrogen production. Keep up to date with our latest thoughts and analysis on the energy industry's most challenging problems by subscribing to Energy Transition Today. (https://lnkd.in/gWdkUpTS) #energytransition #IRA #ccus #bluehydrogen

Two companies in the advanced reactor space went public last week. Oklo (NYSE: OKLO) and Nano Nuclear Energy (NASDAQ: NNE) had mixed opening days, with OKLO seeing a nearly 50% price drop from opening and NNE trading up well above its initial offering price. NNE is developing two reactor designs for remote deployment, while OKLO has signed a letter of intent to supply FANG with its design to support oilfield electrification efforts. Key public and private investors in these technologies include: • Bill Gates (TerraPower). • Sam Altman (OKLO). • Nucor (NuScale). • Dow (X-energy). These investors are heavily invested in the success of advanced reactor technology to help decarbonize their businesses. Generation IV reactors differ from today's reactor fleet by operating at much higher temperatures, with some reaching over 900 Celsius. The success of these technologies would have a significant impact on: • Heavy industry and mining, where heat input is the greatest barrier to decarbonization. • Developing nations. • Remote communities. Multiple Generation IV reactor designs are being actively pursued across the globe, making it a matter of when, not if, players in this space begin to flourish. Keep up to date with our latest thoughts and analysis on the energy industry's most challenging problems by subscribing to Energy Transition Today. (https://lnkd.in/gWdkUpTS) #energytransition #nuclearpower #nextgenerationnuclear #advancedreactors

Yesterday, three new Class VI applications were added to the EPA, including the first Class VI wells in West Virginia and Florida. The West Virginia wells, in Hancock County, are the first two wells from Tenaska’s Tri-State CCS Redbud project, which aims to be a seven-well hub to serve CO2 emitters in the region. The majority of emissions near this site come from two power plants; Energy Harbor’s W H Sammis facility which emits almost 6 mtpa with an estimated capture breakeven of $59.97/tonne, and South Field Energy’s plant with annual emissions of 3 million tonnes and an estimated capture breakeven of $51.39/tonne. Hancock County is located in a gap between major unconventional development of the Utica to the west and Marcellus to the east, lessening the risk for interfering with hydrocarbon production, however, a suitable large-scale carbon storage reservoir is unproven in the region. Tenaska also has two other planned sites for their Tri-State CCS Hub; Buckeye, in eastern Ohio and Oak Grove, in southwest Pennsylvania. These two sites are in heavily developed regions of the Utica and Marcellus, respectfully, which will add to site construction, mineral rights and leakage risk, in addition to uncertainty around a viable carbon storage reservoir. Florida also received its first Class VI application with a submission from Emera's Tampa Electric Co. (TECO), linked to on-site storage at its Polk Power Station, about 40 miles southeast of Tampa. TECO received $5.6 million in FEED study funding from the DOE in 2022 to retrofit the plant for CCS using ION Clean Energy’s capture technology. Enverus Intelligence Research estimates an average post-combustion capture breakeven for the 2.7 mtpa gas-fired facility of $56.37/tonne.

The EPA's final rulemaking on the update to 40 CFR Part 60, released in March, imposes new source performance standards for fossil fuel-fired electricity generating units. Impacted facilities include new and existing coal plants as well as new, modified or reconstructed natural gas power plants. Key points include: • For existing coal power facilities retiring before 2032, no emission standards apply. • Coal facilities retiring before 2039 must retrofit for 40% gas co-firing by 2030. • Coal plants retiring after 2039 require CCS installation to capture 90% of CO2 by 2032. • New, modified or reconstructed baseload natural gas power plants must adopt CCS technology capturing 90% of CO2 by 2032. Enverus Intelligence Research believes the rule may accelerate coal plant retirements and increase costs for new gas plants, impacting grid stability and electricity prices. Gas demand may rise as coal plants aim to retrofit for natural gas co-firing. The rule faces legal challenges, with 25 states already filing lawsuits, indicating a contentious path forward. Keep up to date with our latest thoughts and analysis on the energy industry's most challenging problems by subscribing to Energy Transition Today. (https://lnkd.in/gWdkUpTS) #energytransition #coalplants #gasplants #CCS

Recent North American electric vehicle sales data indicates a slowdown in the pace of sales growth, partly due to Tesla's lower profit margins resulting from price cuts to the Model 3 and Model Y. Several factors contribute to this broader slowdown, including the lack of charging infrastructure, higher interest rates and market saturation among enthusiasts. Despite the slowdown, Enverus Intelligence Research still predicts EV sales will continue their steady trajectory. • Tesla's significant presence in the U.S. EV market, with over 50% market share, experienced reduced profit margins in 2023 due to price cuts. • Despite the near-term slowdown, the inevitability of price and range parity is expected to propel EV sales toward the end of the decade, especially with EPA regulations aiming to reduce emissions. • EPA regulations targeting tailpipe emissions are forecast to further boost EV adoption, potentially increasing market share from 9% in 2023 to 50% by 2035. Keep up to date with our latest thoughts and analysis on the energy industry's most challenging problems by subscribing to Energy Transition Today. (https://lnkd.in/gWdkUpTS) #energytransition #electricvehicles #evcharging #tailpipeemissions