Wes Streeting urges voters not to ‘give the matches back to the arsonist to finish the job’ – as it happened

• Shadow health secretary Wes Streeting urged voters not to give “matches back to the arsonist to finish the job”, as he suggested a Conservative election victory would be a “nightmare on Downing Street”. The Labour frontbencher warned against “breathtaking complacency” over opinion polls predicting a victory for Keir Starmer’s party at the general election. The transport secretary, Mark Harper, said Labour will have a “blank cheque” if they win the 4 July general election with a large majority.

• Wes Streeting failed to rule out an overhaul of the council tax system if Labour win next month’s election and said his party wanted to do more in power than it had promised in its manifesto. The shadow health secretary told BBC One’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg none of his party’s manifesto pledges required a rise in council tax. But pushed by the presenter to rule out the country’s first revaluation since 1991, he refused to do so.

• Polling expert Prof John Curtice said support for the Conservative party is now at its lowest ever in British polling history. “Every poll has reported a fall in Conservative support and nearly all the narrowing of the Conservative lead over Reform,” he told the BBC. “So, what last week was an average eight point Conservative lead over Reform has now halved to just four points – and standing at just 20%, Conservative support is now at its lowest ever in British polling history.” His comments came after the latest Opinium poll for the Observer showed a shift away from the main parties.

• Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth accepted that the 4 July poll “isn’t an independence election”, while in Scotland, SNP leader John Swinney accused the Tories and Labour of threatening the NHS. Analysis by the Nuffield Trust thinktank suggested both Labour and Tory pledges on the NHS would leave the health service with lower annual funding increases – at 1.1% and 0.9% respectively – than during the austerity era.

Thank you for reading and all your comments today. This blog is closing now but you can read all of our politics coverage here.

Douglas Ross’s decision to stand to be an MP has left a “bad taste” in the north-east Scotland constituency where he is running, first minister John Swinney has said.

The Scottish Conservative leader put himself forward as candidate for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East after David Duguid was told by the party’s management board that he could not stand due to his ill-health.

Ross said he would step down as leader shortly afterwards, when his colleagues expressed unhappiness at the move.

Boundary changes mean that Aberdeenshire North and Moray East is being contested for the first time, but most of the constituency was in Banff and Buchan, previously represented by Duguid.

Duguid has been in rehab after a serious spinal injury but had believed he was sufficiently recovered to stand and had been adopted by his local party – before they were overruled by the Scottish Tory management board, of which Ross is a member.

While campaigning in Keith, Moray, alongside SNP candidate Seamus Logan on Sunday, Swinney told the PA news agency:

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East is a key seat for the Scottish National Party.

It’s obviously the seat where the sitting Conservative MP has been ousted by Douglas Ross and I think that leaves a really bad taste in the mouths of people in this constituency.

I’m keen to make sure that people elect Seamus Logan as a strong advocate of this community for the SNP- who will go to the House of Commons and put the interests of Scotland first.

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16 Jun 202409.55 EDT

Michael Goodier

Brexit, oil and bombs: The words that have defined UK elections since 1945

Climate change, Brexit, and Europe might have been key touchstones in previous election campaigns, but Guardian analysis shows they are given less prominence in the two main UK parties’ latest manifestos in 2024.

Looking into the text of every Conservative and Labour election manifesto dating back to 1945 shows that, while both parties still dedicate column inches to the climate emergency, these issues are less prominent than in the last election cycle.

While the Labour party mentions climate issues at a higher rate (1.7 climate related terms for every 1,000 words) than the Tory manifesto does (1 in 1,000), these issues are mentioned with much less frequency than in the 2019 documents (4.4 mentions in 1,000 words for Labour and 1.1 for the Conservatives).

Both the government and Labour have come in for criticism over their manifestos, both of which were published this week, from climate experts who say that neither party is going far enough to mitigate the climate crisis.

The comments on the blog – which will run until 4pm – will be turned off at 3pm today.

Tributes have been shared in memory of Jo Cox, a Labour MP who was murdered eight years ago today.

In 2016, Thomas Mair, an extreme rightwing terrorist, was sentenced to prison for the rest of his life for the murder of Cox, the former Batley and Spen MP. He repeatedly shot and stabbed Cox in an attack during the EU referendum campaign.

Paying tribute on Sunday, the Labour party leader, Keir Starmer, said:

I will always carry Jo’s words with me as we campaign for change: “We are far more united and have far more in common than that which divides us.

The Jo Cox foundation said:

We also share Jo’s belief that, together, we can strengthen communities to become less lonely, better connected, and more united.

Dawn Butler, who was the Labour MP for Brent Central, and left the Commons on 30 May 2024, said:

Now more than ever we should remember Jo’s powerful message, that we have far more in common than that which divides us.

A Labour-run Scotland Office would work in partnership with the Scottish government when it uses its new spending powers, shadow Scottish secretary Ian Murray has said.

Labour has said levelling up money would be spent via the Scotland Office to tackle poverty and encourage growth if they won office, the PA news agency reports.

While campaigning on Sunday alongside Edinburgh East and Musselburgh candidate Chris Murray, Ian Murray said he was willing to work with the SNP on this but added “it takes two to tango”.

The shadow Scottish Secretary said Labour had had more than 120,000 doorstep conversations in Scotland since the election campaign began.

He told journalists:

I can assure you that any Scotland Office that I run will be solely focused on delivering for the Scottish people and that means we’ve got to work closely together.

Of course, it takes two to tango, they’ve got to also decide they want to dance. The Scotland Office will be turned into a spending department, we’ve got money to spend too.

And the best bang for your buck is to work together to spend that money in local communities to create jobs and eradicate poverty.

He mentioned the City Deals of recent years as a funding model, which involved partnerships with local councils, the Scottish government and the UK government.

16 Jun 202409.03 EDT

Richard Adams

Richard Adams is the Guardian’s education editor

More than 30 Conservative seats are at risk of changing hands because of students returning home for the summer holidays, according to analysis of how student voters could influence the outcome of the UK’s general election.

The cabinet minister Esther McVey’s Tatton constituency is one of the 35 suburban or rural seats where Tory hopes could be dashed by students registered to vote at their family home, rather than their university term-time address.

The warning comes before Tuesday’s deadline to register to vote in the election, with the National Union of Students (NUS) urging its members to sign up.

Voting analysis by the Higher Education Policy Institute (Hepi) suggests that deciding to hold the general election during summer was a strategic error that could hamper Conservative efforts to stem their losses, with polling showing very weak support for the party among those aged 18-24.

Wes Streeting also hit out at a Labour peer Lord Cashman during his media round today.

Cashman, a former EastEnders actor, called Labour’s Canterbury candidate Rosie Duffield “frit or lazy” after she called off local hustings over safety concerns. He has since apologised.

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It came after Duffield, who has been a defender of women’s rights and female-only spaces, said her attendance at local hustings was “impossible” because of “constant trolling”.

Streeting told Times Radio on Sunday: “I strongly disagree with Michael.
“That is extremely unfair and I was very concerned Rosie’s not able to participate in hustings and is having to change the way she behaves because of abuse.

“That is wholly intolerable and unacceptable, as is the abuse Nigel Farage has had.

“I count Michael and Rosie as friends and this is exactly the kind of division I’ve been working really hard to try and work through and heal.”

Ms Duffield, who is running for the Canterbury seat on July 4, last week said the “extremely difficult decision” to cancel local hustings was made because the “actions of a few fixated individuals” had affected her “sense of security and wellbeing”.

Gabriel Pogrund, the Sunday Times’ Whitehall editor, has been told the shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will be put at the centre of Labour’s election campaign next week, appearing in a black and white photo that will be put on billboards and social media adverts across the country.

The words next to her photo read: “The Tories brought us economic chaos. As chancellor, I’ll restore economic stability.”

Young people feel more economically insecure, ignored and apathetic than the average voter before the election, amid evidence that they could be fuelling the growth of smaller parties.

A strong rejection of the Conservative party among the youngest voters continues to be evident: the latest Opinium poll for the Observer has a 52-point Labour lead among the under-35s.

But analysts pointed to economic pessimism and potential apathy that could also spell trouble for Labour in the years ahead. The European elections last week saw young voters help the rise of the far-right in countries including France and Germany.

While analysts said there is limited evidence Reform UK has picked up substantially more younger voters in the UK – some polls in the last week had it ahead of, or on a par with, the Tories among 18- to 24-year-olds – it is the Liberal Democrats and Greens who could stand to benefit if young people ultimately feel uninspired by Keir Starmer’s pitch.

My colleagues Michael Savage and Aneesa Ahmed have the full story here:

SNP leader John Swinney has said the main two parties are a threat to the NHS in Scotland.

Responding to research from the Nuffield Trust, which said that Labour and the Conservatives would both leave the NHS with lower spending increases than during the years of Tory austerity, Swinney said: “It’s increasingly clear the Labour party and the Tories are both a threat to Scotland’s NHS.”

Even though health is a devolved matter for ministers in Edinburgh, spending decisions at Westminster do affect the Scottish government’s budget.

With recent polling suggesting that Labour could make significant gains on 4 July, in particular in seats in Glasgow and across the central belt, Swinney has told Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar that his pledges for more spending on the NHS, schools and renewables projects contradicted the constraints laid out by Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor.

The UK’s tax authority has not fined a single “enabler” of offshore tax evasion or noncompliance in five years, despite landmark powers to impose huge fines.

Tory ministers claimed new laws introduced in 2017 allowed HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) to pursue accountants, lawyers and bankers who facilitate offshore tax evasion would “create a level playing field”, with potential fines of several millions of pounds.

New figures disclosed under freedom of information laws to the Bureau of Investigative Journalism reveal no one has been fined in the last five years under the powers.

“New HMRC powers are pointless if the powers aren’t then used,” said Dan Neidle, founder of the independent thinktank Tax Policy Associates and former head of tax at global law firm Clifford Chance.

You can read the full story by my colleagues Edward Siddons and Jon Ungoed-Thomas here:

A former subpostmaster who lost his livelihood in the Horizon scandal has accused Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey of “buffoonery” for his stunt-laden election campaign.

The PA news agency reports:

Lee Castleton compared Sir Ed’s actions to those of former Tory prime minister Boris Johnson, adding trust is “never going to be built” by “paddleboarding in Cumbria”.

Sir Ed has come under fire for not doing more to help wrongly convicted subpostmasters between 2010 and 2012 when he served as postal affairs minister in the coalition government.

He has previously apologised for failing to see through the Post Office’s “lies” and insisted he is taking voters’ concerns seriously during a campaign in which he has visited a theme park and also sped down the Ultimate Slip n Slide near Frome, Somerset.

More than 700 subpostmasters were prosecuted by the Post Office and handed criminal convictions between 1999 and 2015 as Fujitsu’s faulty Horizon IT system made it appear as though money was missing at their branches.

Mr Castleton, from Bridlington, East Yorkshire, was found to have a £25,000 shortfall at his branch in 2004 and was made bankrupt after he lost his legal battle with the Post Office.

He told the BBC’s Sunday Morning With Laura Kuenssberg: “I don’t particularly like the buffoonery, I find it very Boris-esque and I don’t think there’s any need for it.

“It’s really, really, really important that we trust him and trust is never going to be built by swinging around on ropes or paddleboarding in Cumbria.

“Trust is about engaging with the people that need that engagement.”
Sir Ed, asked by Ms Kuenssberg if he was taking things seriously, replied:

“On the subpostmasters, my heart goes out to Lee and all the others so badly affected and I’m looking forward to giving evidence to the inquiry, which I campaigned for to hold people to account.

“But in terms of the things we’ve been doing, the stunts, actually the real issue is engaging people and they have done.”

He added: “We’re taking the voters’ concerns really seriously.
“That’s why we’ve put forward all these policy proposals and whenever we do one of those stunts to engage people – so I show that I’m not taking myself too seriously, I’m taking the voters seriously – we’ve had lots of policy ideas. “So when I was going down that slide, we were talking about mental health.”

The Lib Dem manifesto proposes creating an “office of the whistle-blower” to provide new legal protections and promote greater public awareness of their rights.

Rishi Sunak surprised many in his own party by announcing an early election on 22 May, against widespread expectations that he would wait until later in the year to allow more time for living standards to recover after the highest inflation in 40 years.

So far, it seems like this gamble has backfired, with the Conservatives performing miserably in the polls, and are on course for heavy losses on 4 July, including senior cabinet ministers potentially losing their seats.

LBC presenter Lewis Goodall gives his analysis on why the Tories are doing so badly, arguing that “it’s a combination of the dishonesty of Boris Johnson, the fecklessness of Liz Truss, and the political lack of ability of Rishi Sunak”.

Plaid Cymru’s Rhun ap Iorwerth has accused Labour of showing a “complete disregard” for Wales in its general election manifesto.

The Plaid leader said the document failed to back policies championed by Labour’s first minister Vaughan Gething.

Ap Iorwerth said it demonstrated a “lack of influence” from Welsh Labour on the party’s UK-wide policy platform.

He said:

Labour’s manifesto proves that the party in Wales is powerless under Keir Starmer.

The complete disregard towards Wales shown in Labour’s programme for government exposes both Welsh Labour’s lack of influence and the UK leader’s lack of ambition.

There is nothing on devolving the crown estate, nothing on HS2 consequentials for Wales, and nothing on the devolution of justice and policing – all policies supported by Labour in Wales.

To add insult to injury, Keir Starmer’s representative in Wales has confirmed that Wales’ post-Brexit cash will still be controlled by Westminster.

Here are some of the main policy proposals in Plaid Cymru’s manifesto:

• Securing for Wales what the party argues is a fairer distribution of central government funds.

• Promising to recruit more teachers, and would like universal free school meals.

• Promising an increase in GPs by restoring funding for them to 8.7% of the devolved health budget.

• Wanting to introduce more safe routes for asylum seekers to come to Britain.

• Promising a “right to adequate housing”.

• Calling for the full devolution of policing power to Wales.

You can read what is in the other party’s manifestos here.

Polling expert Prof John Curtice has said support for the Conservative party is now at its lowest ever in British polling history.

He mentioned the YouGov poll last week that put Reform one point ahead of the Conservatives as a sign of the Tories’ dwindling support, though he noted that no other poll reported the same findings.

Every poll has reported a fall in Conservative support and nearly all the narrowing of the Conservative lead over Reform.

So, what last week was an average eight point Conservative lead over Reform has now halved to just four points – and standing at just 20%, Conservative support is now at its lowest ever in British polling history.

Mr Sunak, whose own personal ratings have clearly fallen, must be beginning to doubt his decision to call the election early.

Curtice points to Labour’s support being down by two points as Keir Starmer’s party is being challenged by the Greens (on 6%) and the Lib Dems (on 12%).

16 Jun 202405.49 EDT

Lisa O'Carroll

Fewer than 200,000 of the estimated 3.5 million British people living abroad for more than 15 years have applied to vote in the UK general election despite the change in law in January returning their right to participate in the ballot.

But those who have already registered are determined to make their mark.

More than 230,000 overseas voters were registered to vote in the last election in December 2019 when Boris Johnson was swept to power on the back of promises he would get “Brexit done”, and this year record numbers were expected after the end of the 15-year rule.

The latest Electoral Commission figures show that just over 137,000 overseas voters had applied this year, most of them since 16 January when the law changed. With an estimated 61,000 still on the register last year, and assuming all are still valid for the 4 July election, this means a possible total of 199,000 Britons abroad have applied for the vote.

You can read the full story here:

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has said the 4 July poll is not an independence election.

He said his firm belief is that Wales won’t reach its potential until it gains independence, but says the timescale for this is down to the Welsh people.

The Plaid Cymru leader told the BBC:

I believe in independence but I am not an isolationist in any way. I am an internationalist. I see Welsh independence as part of the redesigning of the UK where us independent nations then would work very, very closely together. But this is not an independence election. This is about getting fair play for Wales in the here and now.

He said there is clearly a demand implicit for a referendum on Welsh independence when pressed by Laura Kuenssberg on why the party is not explicitly calling for one.

Plaid Cymru held four seats in Westminster in the last parliament and polling suggests it will take two or three seats on 4 July amid troubles for Welsh Labour in the Senedd after a vote of no confidence in the first minister, Vaughan Gething.

Plaid Cymru is pushing for “fair funding for Wales” with its manifesto pledging to overhaul the Barnett formula that determines levels of public spending for devolved nations.