No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.
Communication Factors Influencing Flood-Risk Mitigation, Motivation, and Intention Among College Students
Abstract
When attempting to communicate flood risk, trust in and perceptions toward risk-information disseminated as well as individual efficacy factors can play a significant role in affecting risk-mitigation motivation and intention. This study seeks to examine how risk communication, risk perception and efficacy factors affect evacuation motivation and behavioral intentions in response to a presumed flood risk, basing on a conceptual framework guided by protection motivation theory (PMT). An online survey was administered to college students (N = 239) from a region that is subject to sea level rise and storm surges. Path analysis results indicate that while less information-source trust predicts greater risk perception, greater information-source trust predicts greater mitigation information-seeking intention, lower self-efficacy and stronger response efficacy. As lower mitigation-information-seeking intention similarly predicts greater risk perception, greater mitigation information-seeking intention also predicts stronger response efficacy. Significant predictors of evacuation motivation include lower risk perception as well as greater information-source trust, severity perception and response efficacy. Implications of these findings are discussed in terms of information dissemination channels, messaging strategies, and recent severe flooding events.
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any citations for this publication.
Rising global temperature has put increasing pressure on understanding the linkage between atmospheric warming and the occurrence of natural hazards. While the Paris Agreement has set the ambitious target to limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to preindustrial levels, scientists are urged to explore scenarios for different warming thresholds and quantify ranges of socioeconomic impact. In this work, we present a framework to estimate the economic damage and population affected by river floods at global scale. It is based on a modeling cascade involving hydrological, hydraulic and socioeconomic impact simulations, and makes use of state-of-the-art global layers of hazard, exposure and vulnerability at 1-km grid resolution. An ensemble of seven high-resolution global climate projections based on Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 is used to derive streamflow simulations in the present and in the future climate. Those were analyzed to assess the frequency and magnitude of river floods and their impacts under scenarios corresponding to 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C global warming. Results indicate a clear positive correlation between atmospheric warming and future flood risk at global scale. At 4°C global warming, countries representing more than 70% of the global population and global gross domestic product will face increases in flood risk in excess of 500%. Changes in flood risk are unevenly distributed, with the largest increases in Asia, U.S., and Europe. In contrast, changes are statistically not significant in most countries in Africa and Oceania for all considered warming levels.
The consensus that humans are causing recent global warming is shared by 90%–100% of publishing climate scientists according to six independent studies by co-authors of this paper. Those results are consistent with the 97% consensus reported by Cook et al (Environ. Res. Lett.
8 024024) based on 11 944 abstracts of research papers, of which 4014 took a position on the cause of recent global warming. A survey of authors of those papers (N = 2412 papers) also supported a 97% consensus. Tol (2016 Environ. Res. Lett.
11 048001) comes to a different conclusion using results from surveys of non-experts such as economic geologists and a self-selected group of those who reject the consensus. We demonstrate that this outcome is not unexpected because the level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science. At one point, Tol also reduces the apparent consensus by assuming that abstracts that do not explicitly state the cause of global warming ('no position') represent non-endorsement, an approach that if applied elsewhere would reject consensus on well-established theories such as plate tectonics. We examine the available studies and conclude that the finding of 97% consensus in published climate research is robust and consistent with other surveys of climate scientists and peer-reviewed studies.
The authors undertook a study to define the messages that exist in 2 communities of risk (e.g., high concentration of chemical facilities) using the principles of fantasy theme analysis and symbolic convergence theory. Through several methodological steps including a document review, interviews, focus groups, and a telephone survey (N = 450), the researchers determined the messages that dominate in the community, and were able to segment them into rhetorical visions based on master analogues. Analysis indicated that persons who adhere to different perspectives or opinions (measured as rhetorical visions) experience different amounts of uncertainty, control, and support or opposition for the industries that create the risks. This analysis adds depth to the risk communication literature and suggests that public relations practitioners can and should attempt to understand risk discourse content as well as the communication processes and risk perceptions held by key publics.
Significance
Coastal flood damages are expected to increase significantly during the 21st century as sea levels rise and socioeconomic development increases the number of people and value of assets in the coastal floodplain. Estimates of future damages and adaptation costs are essential for supporting efforts to reduce emissions driving sea-level rise as well as for designing strategies to adapt to increasing coastal flood risk. This paper presents such estimates derived by taking into account a wide range of uncertainties in socioeconomic development, sea-level rise, continental topography data, population data, and adaptation strategies.
This article focuses on the emerging role of the public sector in dealing with catastrophic disasters. An empirical analysis of the 9/11 response operations provides a detailed case study with an eye to its implications for not only emergency management practice but public policy as well. The “horde of hurricanes” inundating Florida in 2004 provides a brief example of a “routine” disaster for comparative purposes. The argument is made that the response to the extreme event of 9/11 provides clear evidence of (a) the different standards expected of the public sector in the 21st century and (b) the fundamental difference in kind between routine disasters and catastrophic disasters. The article states that the public increasingly expects better public sector leadership before, during, and after catastrophic disasters than has been seen in the past. High standards of responsiveness and the ubiquitous media compel public leaders to coordinate resources effectively.
Hurricane Rita made landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border in September 2005, causing major damage and disruption. As Rita approached the Gulf Coast, uncertainties in the storm's track and intensity forecasts, combined with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, led to major evacuations along the Texas coast and significant traffic jams in the broader Houston area. This study investigates the societal impacts of Hurricane Rita and its forecasts through a face-to-face survey with 120 Texas Gulf Coast residents. The survey explored respondents' evacuation decisions prior to Hurricane Rita, their perceptions of hurricane risk, and their use of and opinions on Hurricane Rita forecasts. The vast majority of respondents evacuated from Hurricane Rita, and more than half stated that Hurricane Katrina affected their evacuation decision. Although some respondents said that their primary reason for evacuating was local officials' evacuation order, many reported using information about the hurricane to evaluate the risk it posed to them and their families. Despite the major traffic jams and the minor damage in many evacuated regions, most evacuees interviewed do not regret their decision to evacuate. The majority of respondents stated that they intend to evacuate for a future category 3 hurricane, but the majority would stay for a category 2 hurricane. Most respondents obtained forecasts from multiple sources and reported checking forecasts frequently. Despite the forecast uncertainties, the respondents had high confidence in and satisfaction with the forecasts of Rita provided by the National Hurricane Center.
This article examines the evacuation behavior of residents in two South Carolina communities, Hilton Head and Myrtle Beach, during the 1996 hurricane season. Two hurricanes that approached South Carolina but hit in North Carolina allowed us to study the impact of repeated “false alarms”; (evacuations ordered based on expectations of a hurricane landfall that proved to be wrong). Differences in evacuation behavior, specific information and concerns prompting evacuation, and the reliability of information sources between hurricane events are examined to determine the impact of false alarms on the credibility of warning systems. Data were derived from a face‐to‐face survey of residents 2 weeks after Hurricane Fran in September 1996. We found that the role of official advisories was more limited than reported in previous research as people sought information on more diverse sets of concerns in their decision making. Reliance on the media and the Weather Channel, in particular, for storm characteristics and advisories was an important factor in evacuation decision making during both hurricane events. The perceived lack of reliability of gubernatorial warnings coupled with dependence on the media suggests that residents find other sources of information more personally relevant. Thus, while residents do not find that officials are “crying wolf,”; they are searching elsewhere for information to assess their own risk—what does it mean to me if there is a wolf? This increased attention toward individual differences in perceived threat may become more pronounced in future evacuations from hurricanes.
The United States has no comprehensive national warning strategy that covers all hazards in all places. Instead, public warning practices are decentralized across different governments and the private sector. Uneven preparedness to issue warnings exists across local communities; hence, people are unevenly protected from the surprise onset of natural disasters. Without changes in this situation, inequalities will grow larger, and the gains made in saving lives over the past decades may well be reversed. Since the first assessment of research on natural hazards was completed in 1975, there have been significant improvements in forecasts and warnings for some hazards but only marginal improvements for others. Forecasts for floods, hurricanes, and volcanic eruptions have improved most significantly, and public dissemination of warnings has improved the most for hurricanes. However, a 100% reliable warning system does not exist for any hazard.
This article details the development of a psychometric instrument measuring the constructs of hazard and outrage in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. The study focused on the interplay of perceived hazard and outrage in relation to evacuation from the New Orleans area, with specific attention to demographic differences. Perceptions of hazard and outrage during Katrina served to illustrate the utility of the scale in examining these responses across different demographic groups. Possible ways that this information can be used to design messages that alert audiences to hazards, yet successfully address the need for outrage, emerged from the study.
Three types of publicly available Google data, which include Google Trends, Google Insights, and Google Hot Trends, are used to illustrate the knowledge that can be gained from hurricane-related searches. Google Trends, which allows users to track the relative frequency of up to five terms, is used to look for evidence of the expected cyclical variation, with peaks during hurricane season and lulls in the remainder of the year. It was found that most coastal locations exhibit a higher search volume index (SVI) when a hurricane was a potential threat on the 5- and 3-day cones. In the United States, Google Insights database was used to geolocate an IP address with less than 25 miles error for 83% of the cities. Google Hot Trends currently lists the 20 most searched-for terms on a particular date and not require the pre-selection of a search term, just a date.
Individuals are able to contribute in reducing vulnerability to climate change and extreme events. This study addresses the question of what motivates coastal dwellers to adapt proactively to rising sea-levels and associated flood events. Data were collected through a questionnaire survey that was carried out in Germany and Denmark. Two elements based on variables of the Protection Motivation Theory were constructed, which depict the perceptions of flood risk and household-level adaptation. In addition, individual and residence-related characteristics were included. First, descriptive statistical analysis on adaptation behaviour and the two elements was conducted. Then, multiple regression analysis was applied to determine which variables influence the total number of implemented adaptation measures. Finally, the implementation of single adaptation measures was investigated using binary logistic regression analysis. Results indicate that personal experience is the main explanatory factor for adaptation behaviour while cognitive variables and personal history are also important. The independent variables that we used can, to a large extent, predict the implementation of measures that require small investments in terms of efforts and costs. However, the implementation of high-investment measures cannot be explained based on these variables. Our findings suggest that risk communication in coastal management should also integrate variables related to adaptation behaviour, and further research is needed to better understand the implementation of high-investment adaptation measures.
The devastating event that was hurricane Katrina is a fertile field for risk and crisis communication scholars. As a case study in failed risk communication by the City of New Orleans, this paper explores the inadequacies of the risk communication based upon Lundgren and McMakin (200427.
Lundgren , R. & McMakin , A. ( 2004 ). Risk Communication: A Handbook for Communicating Environmental, Safety, and Health Risks . Columbus , OH : Battelle Press . View all references) as augmented by Rowan's (1991) rhetorical perspective. The analysis concludes that while the care communication was adequate, inadequate clarity, insufficient credibility, and a failure to properly adapt to critical audiences resulted in a failure of consensus communication and crisis communication. Several lessons learned are advanced: (a) effective care communication is to little avail if the subsequent consensus and crisis messages are inadequate, (b) message preparation before the crisis is essential, (c) to be effective, messages must be credible to their recipient audiences, and (d) ethnicity, class, gender, and similar demographic characteristics of audiences must be adapted to if risk communication messages are to be effective.
This article describes a model of communication known as crisis and emergency risk communication (CERC). The model is outlined as a merger of many traditional notions of health and risk communication with work in crisis and disaster communication. The specific kinds of communication activities that should be called for at various stages of disaster or crisis development are outlined. Although crises are by definition uncertain, equivocal, and often chaotic situations, the CERC model is presented as a tool health communicators can use to help manage these complex events.
Environmental issues have become important topics in the 21st century. Communication practitioners and scholars struggle with effectively communicating the threat of climate change and other changes to the natural world, partially due to the lack of concern by the general public. We present Protection Motivation Theory as a framework for explaining proenvironmental behavioral intentions among a college sample. Participants (N = 607) responded to an online survey, and the results indicate support for the proposed model, with severity (H1), vulnerability (H2), response efficacy (H3), and self-efficacy (H4) positively predicting proenvironmental behavioral intentions and response costs (H5) negatively predicting intentions. Implications for practitioners and scholars are discussed, and areas of future exploration in this domain are identified.
Floodplain land-use decisions are made by individuals in households, businesses, and local governments. Whatever the venue, the decisions made are the outcome of multiple interacting influences, with one being consideration of flood risk. The goal of a flood risk communication program may be to improve the understanding of flood risk among those making decisions. An alternative goal may be to change the decisions made. Understanding how individuals make decisions and the mental strategies they employ, as well as understanding the larger context of decisionmaking, will contribute to better defining the goals of a flood risk communication program and then designing a program that will secure those goals.
The purpose of this research was to revise scales measuring perceived susceptibility to breast cancer and perceived benefits and barriers to mammography utilization. A total of 618 women age 50 and over who were enrolled in a large intervention study participated in data collection. Scales were revised beginning with focus group input. Analyses included internal consistency reliability, test-retest reliability, factor analysis, confirmatory analysis, and known groups techniques to test construct validity. Internal consistency ranged from .75 to .88, and test reliabilities from .59 to .72. Construct validity was confirmed with exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses, as well as known group techniques. Overall these scales represent an improvement in those previously reported. (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
The more prepared people are, the less harm they will suffer when disaster strikes. Yet anecdotal and empirical evidence shows that people overestimate their preparedness and are underprepared. While a robust literature has matured around hazards, risk, and vulnerability, and disaster policy, politics, and management, the literature about individual preparedness is much more limited and inconsistent. We know little about why people prepare (or why they do not), and what would make them prepare more. As a result, public managers are at a loss about how to design effective preparedness programs. In this paper, we survey the literature on preparedness to crystallize the gaps in our understanding of when and how citizens react to the threat of disaster. We then examine and compare the views of risk and preparedness held by individuals and government officials drawing on insights from a 4-year study that involved three national surveys and intensive studies in two communities. We use this analysis to address two questions: What do citizens think and do about risks and preparedness, and why? How do local government officials understand what citizens think and do about risks and preparedness?.
Sojourns to other countries, such as for studying abroad, are increasingly common. However, adjusting to life in a different country can be stressful and require significant effort. Sojourners need to not only maintain and expand their social networks, but they also continuously seek information about their new environment. While international students are a sizable group, their daily information behavior is not well understood. This study posits that social networking sites (SNS), such as Facebook, may play an important role in international students' everyday life information seeking (ELIS). Using descriptive statistics, ANOVA, and structural equation modeling (SEM), the study analyzed international students' everyday life information needs, their usage of SNS for ELIS, and the relationships among demographics, personality traits, SNS usage, and perceived usefulness of the acquired everyday life information. Findings indicate that a majority of the respondents frequently used SNS for ELIS. Younger students, undergraduates, and extroverts were more likely to use SNS for ELIS, while no gender difference was found. Notably, among the nine user characteristics and behavior factors, SNS usage emerged as the only positive predictor of perceived usefulness of acquired information in meeting daily needs. This indicates that SNS serve as a valuable channel for purposeful everyday life information seeking. Beyond its social support value, the ELIS value of SNS is a fruitful area for future research.
Risk perception is examined in the context of the Red River flood of
1997. The role that experience with prior flood events plays in risk
perception is highlighted as well as the impacts of experience on the
mitigation actions selected by individuals. The Red River flood of 1997
demonstrated that individuals with different prior flood experience
could be expected to behave differently during a flood event. This
implies that flood warnings should be tailored to the characteristics of
the target audience.
This article reports the first meta-analysis of the literature on protection motivation theory (Rogers, 1975, 1983; Rogers & Prentice-Dunn, 1997), a model of disease prevention and health promotion that has generated research for over two decades. The literature review included 65 relevant studies (N= approximately 30,000) that represented over 20 health issues. The mean overall effect size (d+= 0.52) was of moderate magnitude. In general, increases in threat severity, threat vulnerability, response efficacy, and self-efficacy facilitated adaptive intentions or behaviors. Conversely, decreases in maladaptive response rewards and adaptive response costs increased adaptive intentions or behaviors. This held true whether the measures were based on intentions or behaviors, and suggests that PMT components may be useful for individual and community interventions.
The fear appeal literature is diverse and inconsistent. Existing fear appeal theories explain the positive linear results occurring in many studies, but are unable to explain the boomerang or curvilinear results occurring in other studies. The present work advances a theory integrating previous theoretical perspectives (i.e., Janis, 1967; Leventhal, 1970; Rogers, 1975, 1983) that is based on Leventhal's (1970) danger control/fear control framework. The proposed fear appeal theory, called the Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM), expands on previous approaches in three ways: (a) by explaining why fear appeals fail; (b) by re‐incorporating fear as a central variable; and (c) by specifying the relationship between threat and efficacy in propositional forms. Specific propositions are given to guide future research.
Proposes a protection motivation theory that postulates the 3 crucial components of a fear appeal to be (a) the magnitude of noxiousness of a depicted event, (b) the probability of that event's occurrence, and (c) the efficacy of a protective response. Each of these communication variables initiates corresponding cognitive appraisal processes that mediate attitude change. The proposed conceptualization is a special case of a more comprehensive theoretical schema: expectancy-value theories. Several suggestions are offered for reinterpreting existing data, designing new types of empirical research, and making future studies more comparable. The principal advantages of protection motivation theory over the rival formulations of I. L. Janis and of H. Leventhal are discussed. (81 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
Protection motivation theory (PMT) was introduced by Rogers in 1975 and has since been widely adopted as a framework for the prediction of and intervention in health-related behavior. However. PMT remains the only major cognitive model of behavior not to have been the subject of a meta-analytic review. A quantitative review of PMT is important to assess its overall utility as a predictive model and to establish which of its variables would be most useful to address health-education interventions. The present paper provides a comprehensive introduction to PMT and its application to health-related behavior, together with a quantitative review of the applications of PMT to health-related intentions and behavior. The associations between threat- and coping-appraisal variables and intentions, and all components of the model and behavior were assessed both by meta-analysis and by vote-count procedures. Threat- and coping-appraisal components of PMT were found to be useful in the prediction of health-related intentions. The model was found to be useful in predicting concurrent behavior, but of less utility in predicting future behavior. The coping-appraisal component of the model was found to have greater predictive validity than was the threat-appraisal component. The main findings are discussed in relation to theory and research on social cognition models. The importance of the main findings to health education is also discussed, and future research directions are suggested.
This article gives an overview of the research on loss of life due to floods. The limited information regarding this topic is presented and evaluated. Analysis of global data for different flood types shows that the magnitude of mortality is related to the severity of the flood effects and the possibilities for warning and evacuation. Information from historical flood events gives a more detailed insight into the factors that determine mortality for an event, such as flood characteristics and the effectiveness of warning and evacuation. At the individual level, the occurrence of fatalities will be influenced by behaviour and individual vulnerability factors. Existing methods for the estimation of loss of life that have been developed for different types of floods in different regions are briefly discussed. A new method is presented for the estimation of loss of life due to floods of low-lying areas protected by flood defences. It can be used to analyse the consequences and risks of flooding and thereby provide a basis for risk evaluation and decision-making. The results of this research can contribute to the development of strategies to prevent and mitigate the loss of life due to floods.
The Web has become an important information repository; often it is the first source a person turns to with an informa- tion need. One common way to search the Web is with a search engine. However, it is not always easy for people to find what they are looking for with keyword search, and at times the desired information may not be readily available online. An alternative, facilitated by the rise of social media, is to pose a question to one"s online social network. In this paper, we explore the pros and cons of using a social net- working tool to fill an information need, as compared with a search engine. We describe a study in which 12 participants searched the Web while simultaneously posing a question on the same topic to their social network, and we compare the results they found by each method.
Past research indicates that personal flood experience is an important factor in motivating mitigation behavior. It is not fully clear, however, why such experience is so important. This study tested the hypothesis that people without flooding experience underestimate the negative affect evoked by such an event. People who were affected by a severe recent flood disaster were compared with people who were not affected, but who also lived in flood-prone areas. Face-to-face interviews with open and closed questions were conducted (n= 201). Results suggest that people without flood experience envisaged the consequences of a flood differently from people who had actually experienced severe losses due to a flood. People who were not affected strongly underestimated the negative affect associated with a flood. Based on the results, it can be concluded that risk communication must not focus solely on technical aspects; in order to trigger motivation for mitigation behavior, successful communication must also help people to envisage the negative emotional consequences of natural disasters.
Risk behaviors and responses to risk communications are complex and multifaceted. Two target
articles (1,2) conclude that little longitudinal evidence shows
that risk perceptions predict precautionary behaviors. This paper focuses on several questions
raised by these perplexing findings that have implications for future research on risk
communications. A pressing need exists to understand how people process risk information over
time and how such processing may differ as a function of risk status, individual differences,
social context, and other factors. I will review evidence and methods from the study of
persuasion and attitude change that suggest several ways to study message processing to
understand what kinds of thoughts are brought to mind following a persuasive communication, as
well as how such thoughts may be related to subsequent beliefs and behaviors as people
encounter new information and make risk-relevant choices.
Katrina cataclysm: Does duration of residency and prior experience affect impacts, evacuation, and adaptation behavior among survivors?
- F O Adeola
Adeola, F. O., 2008: Katrina cataclysm: Does duration of residency
and prior experience affect impacts, evacuation, and adaptation
behavior among survivors? Environ. Behav., 41, 459-489,
https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0013916508316651.
Hurricane Ike's 9-foot floods to bring ''certain death
- W Drye
Drye, W., 2008: Hurricane Ike's 9-foot floods to bring ''certain
death.'' National Geographic News, 12 September, https://web.
archive.org/web/20090315171321/http://news.nationalgeographic.
com/news/2008/09/080912-hurricane-ike.html.
Household evacuation decision making and the benefits of improved hurricane forecasting: Developing a framework for assessment
- J K Lazo
- D M Waldman
- B H Morrow
- J A Thacher
Lazo, J. K., D. M. Waldman, B. H. Morrow, and J. A. Thacher,
2010: Household evacuation decision making and the benefits
of improved hurricane forecasting: Developing a framework
for assessment. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 207-219, https://doi.org/
10.1175/2009WAF2222310.1.
--, A. Bostrom, R. E. Morss, J. L. Demuth, and H. Lazrus, 2015:
Factors affecting hurricane evacuation intentions. Risk Anal.,
35, 1837-1857, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12407.
Risk Communication in Multi-Ethnic Communities
- M Lindell
- R Perry
Lindell, M., and R. Perry, 2004: Risk Communication in Multi-Ethnic Communities. SAGE, 272 pp.
Hurricane perceptions of coastal Connecticut residents. Yale Project on Climate Change Communication Rep
- J R Marlon
- S Rosenthal
- G Feinberg
- S Pal
- A Leiserowitz
Marlon, J. R., S. Rosenthal, G. Feinberg, S. Pal, and A. Leiserowitz,
2015: Hurricane perceptions of coastal Connecticut residents.
Yale Project on Climate Change Communication Rep., 52 pp.,
https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp-content/uploads/
2015/03/Coastal_Storm_Survey_Report_2015Mar20.pdf.
Hurricane Pam' exercise offered glimpse of Katrina misery
- J Mcquaid
McQuaid, J., 2005: 'Hurricane Pam' exercise offered glimpse of
Katrina misery. Times-Picayune, https://web.archive.org/web/
20150712012259/http://www.nola.com/katrina/index.ssf/2005/
09/hurricane_pam_exercise_offered_glimpse_of_katrina_
misery.html.
The role of searching in shaping reactions to earthquake risk information
- D S Mileti
- J D Darlington
Mileti, D. S., and J. D. Darlington, 1997: The role of searching in
shaping reactions to earthquake risk information. Soc. Probl.,
44, 89-103, https://doi.org/10.2307/3096875.
Twitter users not so social after all. CNNMoney
- J Pepitone
Pepitone, J., 2010: Twitter users not so social after all. CNNMoney,
10 March, https://money.cnn.com/2010/03/10/technology/
twitter_users_active/index.htm?hpt5Mid.
