Extended Data Fig. 1: NLST STARD diagram.

a, Diagram describing exclusions made in our analysis. b, Table describing exclusions made by the NCI when selecting images to release from NLST. Note that there were 623 screen-detected cancers but a total of 638 cancer-positive patients. The additional 15 patients were diagnosed during the screening window, but not due to a positive screening result. In this case Row 3 ‘Relevant Images’ meant that, for cancer-positive patients, there were images from the year of the cancer diagnosis, and for cancer-negative patients it meant that all 3 years of screening images were available. Note that the publicly available version of NLST downsampled the screening groups 3 (no nodule, some abnormality) and 4 (no nodule, no abnormalities). In Extended Data Figs. 2, 3, 4 and Supplementary Table 4 we present another version of the main analysis that compensates for this downsampling by upweighting patients within these groups.