Markets at a glance

The month of May marks the release of the first forecasts for global cereal production, but with many crops yet to be planted in the northern hemisphere, there is a high level of uncertainty with these projections. This year, the validity of the first forecasts for 2024/25 wheat production is already being tested, as drought and prolonged frost in key producing areas of the Russian Federation have constrained yield prospects. Consequently, world wheat export prices surged during May on deepening production worries, centered on the Black Sea region. Wheat, most of which is consumed as food with only a limited number of substitutes, is being watched very closely, particularly by importing countries from a food security perspective.

• Wheat production in 2024 falling fractionally below (0.1 percent) the 2023 level. Potential output declines in the EU, Türkiye, the UK and Ukraine, to be offset by increases in Australia, Canada, India, and the US.
• Utilization to contract by 0.8 percent in 2024/25, stemming from lower feed and other use, mostly concentrated in China and India.
• Trade in 2024/25 (July/June) forecast to decrease by 1.2 percent, driven by lower import demand from China and the EU, along with smaller exports from the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Türkiye.
• Stocks (ending in 2025) predicted to decline by 1.6 percent below opening levels, largely due to a significant drawdown in the EU, along with smaller decreases in Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation.

• Maize production in 2024 to decline in 2024 by 1.3 percent from the 2023 level with decreases in Brazil, South Africa, Ukraine and the US. By contrast, bigger harvests are likely seen in Argentina and the EU.
• Utilization in 2024/25 forecast to expand by 1.1 percent, underpinned largely by growth in feed use, especially in China and, to a lesser extent, Brazil and the Russian Federation.
• Trade in 2024/25 (July/June) falling below the 2023/24 level by 2.7 percent, primarily reflecting smaller purchases by China, and lower exports by Brazil and Ukraine.
• Stocks (ending 2025) are likely to rise by 3.5 percent above their opening level, with a large build-up in the EU, as well as smaller increases in Brazil, China, and the US.

• Rice production in 2024/25 tentatively forecast to expand by 0.9 percent y/y to a fresh peak, thanks to robust plantings and a revival in yield growth.
• Utilization in 2024/25 to grow by 1.2 percent y/y, as ample supplies underpin a 1.4 percent increase in food use.
• Trade in 2024 little changed m/m and still seen contracting to a four-year low, amid lower expected shipments by India, but also by Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Viet Nam.
• Stocks (2024/25 carry-out) seen at an all-time high, as in addition to continued build-ups in exporters, carryovers in importers could expand for the first time in four seasons.

• Soybean 2024/25 production to reach a fresh all-time high, mainly reflecting continued area expansion across Argentina, Brazil and the US, assuming favourable weather conditions.
• Utilization in 2024/25 to increase further, underpinned by expectations of firm crushing activities due to robust soyoil uptake from the biofuel sector in the Americas, and improving feed demand mainly from China.
• Trade in 2024/25 (Oct/Sep) to rebound after declining marginally in the previous season, supported by ample export availabilities and rising global import demand.
• Stocks (2024/25 carry-out) to accumulate, possibly to record highs, with all major stockholders expected to build their reserves, while the global stocks-to-use ratio is also forecast to increase further.