Impacts of social distancing policies on mobility and COVID-19 case growth in the US
Abstract
Social distancing remains an important strategy to combat the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. However, the impacts of specific state-level policies on mobility and subsequent COVID-19 case trajectories have not been completely quantified. Using anonymized and aggregated mobility data from opted-in Google users, we found that state-level emergency declarations resulted in a 9.9% reduction in time spent away from places of residence. Implementation of one or more social distancing policies resulted in an additional 24.5% reduction in mobility the following week, and subsequent shelter-in-place mandates yielded an additional 29.0% reduction. Decreases in mobility were associated with substantial reductions in case growth two to four weeks later. For example, a 10% reduction in mobility was associated with a 17.5% reduction in case growth two weeks later. Given the continued reliance on social distancing policies to limit the spread of COVID-19, these results may be helpful to public health officials trying to balance infection control with the economic and social consequences of these policies.
- Publication:
-
Nature Communications
- Pub Date:
- 2021
- DOI:
- 10.1038/s41467-021-23404-5
- arXiv:
- arXiv:2004.10172
- Bibcode:
- 2021NatCo..12.3118W
- Keywords:
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- Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution
- E-Print:
- Co-first Authors: GAW, SV, VE, and AF contributed equally. Corresponding Author: Dr. Evgeniy Gabrilovich, [email protected] 32 pages (including supplemental material), 4 figures in the main text, additional figures in the supplemental material